We’re not going back to normal

MIT Technology Review:

But it won’t end there. As long as someone in the world has the virus, breakouts can and will keep recurring without stringent controls to contain them. In a report yesterday (pdf), researchers at Imperial College London proposed a way of doing this: impose more extreme social distancing measures every time admissions to intensive care units (ICUs) start to spike, and relax them each time admissions fall.

Even in the least restrictive of the Imperial College scenarios, we’re shut in more than half the time.

Ho boy. Tot pakweg eind 2021 gaan we een soort knipperlichtsamenleving tegemoet, vergelijkbaar met het smogalarm, waarbij we soms al eens wat meer mogen en soms al eens wat minder.

Gepubliceerd op
Gecategoriseerd als Blog

The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What’s Coming

Wired:

The world is not going to begin to look normal until three things have happened. One, we figure out whether the distribution of this virus looks like an iceberg, which is one-seventh above the water, or a pyramid, where we see everything. If we’re only seeing right now one-seventh of the actual disease because we’re not testing enough, and we’re just blind to it, then we’re in a world of hurt. Two, we have a treatment that works, a vaccine or antiviral. And three, maybe most important, we begin to see large numbers of people—in particular nurses, home health care providers, doctors, policemen, firemen, and teachers who have had the disease—are immune, and we have tested them to know that they are not infectious any longer. And we have a system that identifies them, either a concert wristband or a card with their photograph and some kind of a stamp on it. Then we can be comfortable sending our children back to school, because we know the teacher is not infectious.

Gepubliceerd op
Gecategoriseerd als Blog

Basecamp’s Jason Fried on the Learning Curve of Remote Work

99U:

A lot of companies are on autopilot, without taking time to reconsider how they do things. When something knocks you off course—this is as off-course as we could imagine—it gives people a moment to look around and see what needs to change. We don’t need to do everything as we did in the office. What happens if we don’t?

Gepubliceerd op
Gecategoriseerd als Linked list

How we can redesign cities to fight future pandemics

Adele Peters voor Fast Company:

If you’re walking around the city and there’s actually nowhere where you can wash your hands or use a public toilet, you’ve actually created a scenario that you’re forcing people to actually take risks that they maybe don’t want to take.

Dat stoort me al heel lang: het gebrek aan openbaar sanitair in ons land. Op het station moet je betalen om het toilet te mogen gebruiken. Lijkt me een wenselijke investering…

Gepubliceerd op
Gecategoriseerd als Linked list

How to Spend the Time

Dahlia Lithwick op Slate:

Now we are in the next phase, or if you aren’t, you may soon be. This is the phase in which you begin to fill your newfound time learning that someone you know has the virus, someone else you know is extremely sick with the virus, and someone you know has just died from the virus. The great thickening of friendship and community that came in the days before the virus means that these losses are thicker too. Punch in the throat, punch in the throat, punch in the throat. The frantic schedule of online concerts and quarantinis starts to recede because the days are filled with the horror of what’s been lost and what might be lost and also with taking your temperature, which can take a good deal of time, especially when you’re terrified. And the worst part is the knowledge that it’s still going to get worse.

Gepubliceerd op
Gecategoriseerd als Linked list

Five Trends Shaping Medium-Term Policy

Quillette:

One early prototype for the kind of flexible and graduated policy that all nations may eventually adopt is provided by New Zealand, which now has a system of four COVID-19 “alert levels”: (1) Prepare, (2) Reduce, (3) Restrict, and (4) Eliminate.

Gepubliceerd op
Gecategoriseerd als Linked list

Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance

Thomas Pueyo in een uitgebreid Medium-artikel:

During the Hammer period, politicians want to lower R as much as possible, through measures that remain tolerable for the population. In Hubei, they went all the way to 0.32. We might not need that: maybe just to 0.5 or 0.6.

But during the Dance of the R period, they want to hover as close to 1 as possible, while staying below it over the long term term. That prevents a new outbreak, while eliminating the most drastic measures.

Gepubliceerd op
Gecategoriseerd als Linked list